The larger the problem, the less dangerous we think it is. That’s the strange conclusion drawn from 15 studies by Eskreis-Winkler, Troncoso Peres, and Fishbach, published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Their research shows that when we learn a problem affects millions of people, we tend to downplay its severity. For instance, telling people that 4.2 million Americans drive under the influence each month actually reduces how risky they think it is. Even pharmaceutical professionals were more likely to believe that medication nonadherence is less serious when reminded that 75% of patients do it. The researchers call this the Big Problem Paradox: the bigger the problem, the smaller it feels. It shows up across sectors, from public health to ethics, and among both laypeople and experts.
The authors suggest a simple explanation: when a problem is widespread, we assume it must be under control. Most people tend to believe the world is generally functional, and that large-scale problems don’t persist unless they’re being managed. So, ironically, when we hear a problem is common, we assume it’s less harmful. In one study, women were told that a genetic mutation linked to breast cancer affects over 300,000 women. Their perceived risk of cancer went down, despite the actual lifetime risk being close to 80%. Even when participants were financially incentivized to guess accurately, this cognitive bias held strong.
This paradox has major implications for HR professionals, managers, and workplace communicators. Trying to raise awareness about harassment, burnout, or inequality? Be cautious about leading with prevalence data. Emphasizing how common a problem is might backfire, making it feel less urgent. Next time you present a “shocking” stat, remember: the more widespread the issue sounds, the more likely people are to dismiss it. Not because they don’t care, but because their brain quietly reassures them it must already be under control.